Thanks for the reply. Regarding the heart of your message.
>>About Sun, the keyword in your opinion is nascent. Let's wait to >>see how that will pan out, but to say that once NCR becomes >>software/services and Sun able to put the bullet to its head is a >>little too farfetched for me.
Of course, by the time we know how it will pan out, the
opportunity for profiting will be gone because everyone else
will know how it will pan out. I am waiting for NCR to show
that it has the ability -- or even just the strategy --
to grow top-line revenue in any sense -- and so far, I don't see it.
>>There's something called institutional experience and it will be a >>big burden for Sun to develop it. Sun is growing like crazy
>>and that poses a risk of spinning out of control. Are you
>>working for Sun? I'm.
No...I don't work for Sun. I would find it interesting to
understand from you why you believe that NCR is a better investment
than Sun...but the truth is that I don't have money in either.
And while I'm familiar with "institutional experience", I'm not a
believer in it in the sense you're using it. I am a believer in
institutional culture -- and I believe that a winning,
aggressive culture is very important.
>>If Sun's able to kill NCR then, it will also be able to kill
>>Oracle, Informix, Sybase, etc...just line them up and shoot
>>them one by one.
I don't see this at all...perhaps you can explain it further. Sun,
NCR, HP, Digital, Sequent, IBM, and others have more or less
vertically oriented computer operations which encompass hardware,
software, and services. Oracle, Informix, and Sybase are merchant
database vendors who are seeking to both extend the capabilities
of their RDBMS engines as well as compete with applications vendors
(e.g., SAP, PeopleSoft, etc.) and service companies. Is there
overlap? Sure...and horizontal segments of each company offer some
competition. However, if I look at NCR's revenues today what I
tend to see is much more direct competition with Sun. That said,
it's not bad that NCR is working with Sun -- I just don't see any
strategy which will allow NCR to make up the lost revenue
contribution from the parts they are ceding to Sun.
Thus, in this analysis, Sun is a net winner and NCR is a net loser.
If NCR uses the moneys saved by getting out of various parts of
the vertical computer industry (e.g., manufacturing, hardware,
OS's, or whatever) and uses those to build new revenue streams,
then it's possible that NCR could also win out of this. Do you
have any theory as to just what it is that the company is going
to invest in to supplement and enhance these lost revenues? Because
all I see is a continually shrinking company -- at
least for the next several years until a strategy is developed.
Thanks for all your insight here. |
