| | | could the polls be wrong? Before the Brexit vote, the bookies had the "stay" side well ahead and predicting the "stay" side would win, however, when I dug into the numbers, the average bet size for "stay" was 200 pounds, and the average bet size for "leave" was 20 pounds. That told me there are far more "leave" betters and that the "leave" side would win as there were obviously many more "leave" bettors. In the upcoming US election polls, the democrats currently are ahead by over 7 points in the poll aggregator, however, if the "Hillary" side represents higher income voters, the the "Trump" side represents lower income or economically disenfranchised voters, AND they show up at the polls, the "Trump" side should win. 80% of voters have only 7% of US wealth and on an income basis, are just scraping by. There is a lot of resentment out there and a pent up demand for change.
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