Dear FredE,
sorry that I respond that late (New Year celebs and some projects that requested my attention).
X86 Chip outlook ?
My answer: Mixed bag.
INTC got best cards. This time it's the high end. They are trying to squeeze those database server RISC & highend workstations. From below they acquired Corollary to crank out a 8-way SMP architecture. You can count on Compaq & others offering 8-CPU Deschutes based on SLOT-2 CPU-connector standard and on the 440NX chipset. This will put some heat on the low end server. The PowerPC platform should feel this heat. You could buy put options on APPLE & IBM, but beware, IBM's desktop, peripheral (diskdrives & printer) units are getting in better and better shape, so they are hedging their bets.
For the highend they have 2 foots in the door. If You don't know Sequent (SQNT), take a look at their ccNUMA architecture. While SMP stands for a SYMMETRIC coupling of CPUs via a GTL+ bus (the thing invented for the Pentium Pro), ccNUMA does this assymetrically. Sequent currently achieved record thruput (tpc & tpd benchmark) by coupling together 22 Pentium Pro CPUs with ccNUMA architecture. This will deal a final blow to Sun (SUNW).
For the highend desktop & Graphical applications the enemy for INTC to beat is SGI (Silicon Graphics). Here they are getting out faster architecture quickly, namely i440BX chipset, AGP etc. This coud put SGI in a tough, potentially unresolvable situation. Perhaps they merge with another player (SUN ?).
INTC still rules the desktop but there might be some inroards of those X86 clone mfg. Anyway look at their history in yield improvements. They should be able to thrive and grow but their monopoly will be gone. My bet: low end profitable but high end should be a stellar performer.
For the clone makers, the positions are as follows, IMHO:
IDTI has a very cheap design. Their upcoming C7 is at current Pentium-MMX performance clockwise, the current C6 is definitely not. They should go head on head with NSM. IDTI has the cheaper design, NSM the better (=cheaper) process. Interesting combat. Probably that the MediaGX of NSM could get squeezed away, if IDTI were able to offer C6 with some more integration built in (chipset, graf, etc.)
AMD has to solve a very difficult problem, sort of "the enemy within": yield problems. They are back in a minute if they succeed to produce 2 million units per quarter. If they crank out 3 million, they become a VITAL competitor and are in for 200% apprectiation in short time. Their upcoming design, the K6-II has the potential to max out Pentium Socket 7 mainboards. This could steal almost ALL of Intels Pentium MMX business if priced right. INTC seems to fear this too, because they almost wanted to quite the P55C (Pentium MMX) but they continued that until their PII-castrate (without Level2 cache) will be ready, which is a POOR solution IMHO. Anyway AMD got a problem to fix, I don't hype them but I just want to spot their appeal.
So let me sum up. INTC now targets the corporate world, making high-thruput database servers more affordable. I would load up COMPAQ, DELL and the like, because they would making most money. INTC could do well, too. The X86 clone makers will coexist, widening the market considerably. INTC will loose lowend to IDTI & NSM, AMD making inroads into the midrange. But INTC will quash the RISC-turf.
Summing up - My asessment for the time being:
INTC: ++
DELL: +++
GTW: +++
NCR: +++
CPQ: ++++
AMD: 0 (if 2-3 million output: +++)
NSM: +
IDTI: 0
SQNT: ++++
HWP: +
SUNW: - -
DEC: +
SGI: - - -
AAPL: - - - -
IBM: +
So You can see, I'm no INTC fan but more a technofreak <G>
regards
CROSSY |
