I *think* she's ahead, because the polls show her ahead. But you need to be realistic about it.
FLA, NC and AZ are tied -- within the margin of error, at least.
From there, Trump has a tougher climb because he needs one more state (CO would tie it, PA would win it, NV + NH would win it, any other state -- MN, MI, WI, VA would win it).
The real difficulty is getting one of these states to fill the gap. But it is a close race -- it could well be separated by 1 state, and PA, CO, NH, NV and even VA have at times shown a propensity to move toward Trump.
And we do not know whether the polling is any good or not. And we know she has the corporate money and as a result, the turnout operation. Movie stars going to the young girls dorms. I get that. But we really don't know how the turnout is going to be where it counts. Let me know if you see those teenyboppers in AZ or PA.
The biggest unexplained item is this crowed from FLA today (TAMPA, I think). He is doing 5 speeches over three days and they have ALL been like this. Not shocking.
But where are Hillary's crowds?
 |
