Roger,
It would appear that your long hedges are treating you well at the moment? (Going long on MSFT at 118 ranks up there with the short calls you made last year!) If the scenario in the coming weeks unfolds as you have suggested, will you continue to hold these quality longs as hedges? Or, once you are convinced that the market has topped, do you plan to go short completely? (E.g., will you reverse your position on MSFT, INTC, etc.; alternatively, will you simply increase positions among the high fliers you have identified? Can you imagine shorting the market, e.g., shorting Spider or perhaps even buying puts on the DOW or the S&P?)
Obviously, any hypothesis relies on a set of assumptions and these could be derailed by "events." However, your big-picture comments have been very helpful in providing a sense of strategy amidst all the volatility.
I am currently hedged -- unfortunately without that exquisite sense of timing -- but have begun to think about how to react concretely should events play themselves out as you expect. Your comments would be appreciated. (Comments from other thread members regarding broad strategy in the face of the "Babb Conjecture" would also be welcome.)
Thanks as always.
Regards, Carl
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