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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary

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To: Robohogs who wrote (590)	10/28/2016 5:37:01 AM
From: Robohogs	of 668

538 on polls disagreeing. I had concluded in own mind they must be using highly different methodologies. If 538 analysis run correctly, results on edge of rare but near 95% band. Still probably something seen only 2-4% of time though - but given this odd election, maybe makes sense. I am seeing very little evidence Trump is breaking through anywhere but toss-ups. He needs PA - highly unlikely per stats. Even if a 2000 happens and average misses by 3%, that only makes it nailbiting. My sense is Repub could win at Clinton + 2 given odd state dynamics. Likely? No. 538 odds look right to me. PEC too confident. On Senate, it comes down to IN, PA, NH, NV, MO. I have a feeling IN may surprise but so may MO. If so GOP needs 2/3 of the rest to hold. 53eig.ht Jon

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