1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Agree
Very much my reasoning too.
I don't think that I said MSFT has reached its peak.
HP is already backpedalling somewhat on NT, because alot
of their customer base won't abandon UNIX. Let's see what
IBM says at MacWorld Tuesday. IBM tries to play all directions
at the same time. Their dropping $$$ support for NT on PPC
I read as a negative. KPMG is stuck fast on MSFT tits.
Exactly, THE question is what share MSFT will get. Will they
get the same 90% share in other markets that they have on
the desktop OS that got them to where they are today? To
that, I say not likely, because alot of other companies know
what is at stake this time around.
I did not say there will be a reduction in investment rate. I
just think the market will move out of favor to the current degree
as preferred instrument. Currently, it is the pre-retirement
boomers that are driving this, mostly via mutual funds. As the
boomers now enter their mid-fifties, the mix may go from nearly
all stocks to other instruments, especially as volatility is now
teaching the lesson that the arrow isn't always up. I expect
more investment in bonds and real estate than the past few years.
Asian difficulties will "blow over", but it will take a few years
before profit centers for sales to growing asain markets start to
drive earnings across the board again. Plus, there will be an
election year coming up, with lame duck admin, likely not to help
the market either. Also I expect Greenspan to retire during
this period.
Another way to look at it is that I see a whole range of combination
of different events and conditions made the MSFT and general market
runup possible the last few years, and that the same conditions
will not likely continue. And I also think that MSFT may not
undergo the necessary transformation from a high-tech company
to a media conglomerate necessary for it to wisely invest and
use that market capitalization and cash. It will require a very
different corporation to do that, something that few seem to
recognize.
Well, that's all. Back to watching my AAPL options, making some
quick $$$ on the normal pre-MacWorld runup... |
