| | | Bastardi (and I agree with him) is looking for late start to winter for eastern US...similar to 2014-2015. This was the winter of deflategate, when it was warm through mid-January, then Feb 2015 was one of the coldest months ever for many cities on NE US. Conversely, the west coast will be warm and dry.
However, I'm watching the Arctic right now. There is a lot of polar heating going on right now, and this heat is dissipating into the stratosphere (sudden stratospheric warming = SSW). This is good for "global cooling", because heat from the oceans is being transported poleward and leaving the troposphere. That's heat leaving the system. It's gone, not trapped by greenhouse gases.
The warming of the stratosphere (SSW) precedes the development of the "polar vortex" pattern by about 2 weeks, so if this continues, the baseline of winter could start colder than expected, while the second half of winter will be much colder than expected.
From here to 2020, I'd expect the winters to starting putting nails in the coffin of global warming. |
|
