Yes there is doubt but I did post somewhere I thought it was not good anyway, but the hypocrisy on both sides is amazing.
It did not influence the race. Race now moving away from Trump. Hence we can now rally. My studies and others' studies all say BIG MOVE UP due.
On biotechs, I have just finished doing day counts on 2008-2009 from the pre-bear mkt in Jan/Feb/Mar 2008 to the big correction this time of year in 2009. Day count into the bottom of the mini-bear was 39 days. Day count in the mini-correction was 30 days. In 2015/16 bear, the count into low was 31 days. We hit 30 days (including day of high on all counts) yesterday. This is all XBI.
Additionally, 7 in a row down streaks are almost always followed by big up spikes. Also, 18/25 down day streaks (most down is 19 btw twice in 2006) are 80% of time followed by good intermediate rallies. Combining metrics, up favored.
I initially thought, and posted on twitter and privately that we were automatically back in the bear even though I knew about the late 2009 correction. It now looks like this latest move is equivalent to big corrections/mini-bears. I could go back to 2000-2003 on BTK but have been running scenarios here for hours.
We may go to $50 on XBI but I do not think so and if we do, I expect $60, if not higher, first.
On broader mkt, new highs may be imminent if as some EW folks suspect, wave 2 is finishing and wave 3 of 3 of 3 is about to begin.
Jon
PS My operative assumption all along on election has been HRC/Who knows Senate/GOP House. I remain in that camp as I did through the entire posting period on the other thread. And this scenario is my favored scenario too. I prefer Senate to GOP because I personally do believe the Dems will push an extreme agenda if they get their preferred choice(s) in the Supremes.
PPS If HRC gets the Senate, it will extremely likely be a 2 year gig. PredictIt market has some idiots betting on the 2018 Senate already and none seem to know that most of the contested seats will be Dem incumbents in Red States. |
