I was just doing some number crunching. Found out that it cost about 50-$60 in feed to raise a hog. Amherstburg plant should be able to sell 3 to 4 thousand hogs a year (I think), $55 x 3500 = $192,500 a year in feed costs. If they could eliminate 75% of this cost through liquid feeding, .75 x 192,500 = $144,375 in feed savings alone. Now for the tricky part: Hogs eat on average about 5 pounds of feed daily. 5000 pounds a day in feed translates into how much organic waste being brought to the plant? Thermo Tech. claims that their waste converts to 15% animal feed. Hmmm, that's about 30,000 pounds a day of waste, 15 tons worth at say $40 a ton, works out to $600 a day in tipping fees.
$600 x 365 days = $219,000 yearly in tipping fees. Tipping fees plus the estimated savings in feed cost equal $411,500 yearly in possible profitability per plant. The company has plans to build at least 15 ROW plants within the next two years. If there are just six of these plants up and running in 1998, earnings could go to $2,469,000. annualy,(about $.10 per share). Does $411,500 yearly per plant seem unreasonable? It doesn't to me. I would be happy with $250,000 a year per plant which is a penny per share. Open up 15 plants within the next couple of years, and we're talking about a $3.00 share price and continuing up as they build one more plant per month therafter. Lets not forget that from time of announcement to time of completion for Amerstburg was just 11 months (compare that to Thermo Tech. and Trooper). Once the financing arrangements are announced for a lot more plants, the plans for this company may quickly come to fruition.
Bill H. |
