I know the winner, Richard Barron.
He actually was the first to recommend Deswell(DSWLF). His other picks have done even better, many doubling or tripling. Even one of his not so hot picks, ADEX, tripled this year, before it sold all the way back down.
I was really intrigued by Richard's picks last January and February, and began researching them, but found many were so small and so difficult to get info on, I gave up on most. I posted my research on a couple on this thread (LUKN and OJ); somehow I managed to research some of his poorer picks. I didn't buy either. I looked at MWL, ADEX, SNSR, BONT, REA, MAL, ELXS etc. very briefly and passed. I had kept a notebook on Richard's picks, but I simply couldn't keep up with that and my efforts over on the Electronic Contract Manufacturing thread. I look at some of those moves now, and they are astonishing.
Richard tends to trade in and out a lot, but seems to gravitate around some core stocks. He must have a terrific stock screen system.
BTW- thanks for the kind words on my picks. Tweedy Browne Global Value returned about 22% on the year, OK for an international value fund, but less than the S&P. The Central European Fund (CEE) closed end had a good year, and paid a big year end gains distribution. CRF went up and down with the Czech market and got trashed this fall. I sold it at 15 last spring (I think) when it traded at a premium instead of its usual discount. Recently it looks good again, if one thinks the Asian contagion won't spread to Eastern Europe.
And Deswell I sold in the low to mid 20s before I bought back in the last several months at an average price of 18.40. The last earnings report this fall was very good, but got lost in the Asian sell-off mania. I think Deswell is a great buy here; the valuation looks similar to where is was last fall. Check the discussion on the Deswell thread, and see recent comments on the stock by Richard Barron, Ron Bower, and Mike Burry, along with Ron's write-up on his discussion with the CEO Ricahrd Lau.
OTOH, I've had my share of poor picks this year; Smartflex (SFLX) is my biggest gross $$$ loser, and I averaged up on Nam Tai(NTAIF)and lived to regret it. (Although now, with over $9 in cash and the stock at 14-15, it looks like a good value; I continue to hold most of my shares and all my warrants.) And I have an even worse dog in my portfolio that I am ashamed to even mention on a "value thread".
I must admit, I traded more than I should have, and missed some run-ups. I appreciate your analysis of last December's picks, and hope some stocks we both own, like Elamex(ELAMF), do well in the new year and beyond.
My value picks this year would be some foreign stocks, DSWLF, ELAMF, NTAIF, all trade about 7 times earnings, and my GARP picks FLEXF and DIIG (both around 12 times my forward earning estimates and will grow over 40% next year), and my turnaround pick is ACTM. I even own some Jabil(JBIL) bought at 31, as a GARP play, since I expect growth of over 40% for it in 98. Notice I will concentrate in the ECM sector, which has really been hurt over the last two months based on the Asian FLu concerns.
If anyone wants to spend the time investigating and pursuing the tiny micro-caps that Richard Barron chases, I can contribute some effort.
Paul |
