merican University professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of every presidential election since 1984. Interestingly, though, his method does not rely on polls, demographics or an analysis of swing states. Rather, Lichtman has developed 13 keys to predicting the election based on the performance of the party currently in the White House.
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This professor has a formula to predict the 2016 election
“There’s a real theory behind this. And the theory is presidential elections don’t work the way we think they do,” Lichtman told CBSN anchor Josh Elliott in June. “They’re not decided by the turns of the campaigns, the speeches, the debates, the fundraising. Rather, presidential elections are fundamentally referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House. If that performance is good enough, they get four more years. If it’s not, they’re turned out and the challenging part wins.”
Lichtman says his 13 keys to predicting the results of the presidential election are simply ways of “mathematically and specifically” measuring that performance. They are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.
The history professor says he came across this method “totally by accident in 1981,” when he met a Russian geophysicist who wanted to collaborate using the methods of earthquake prediction to predict elections. Lichtman insists that’s not nearly as far-fetched as it sounds because both prediction formulas gauge stability vs. upheaval.
As for the results of this election, Lichtman says 2016 has been the hardest race he’s ever attempted to predict. When the author of “The Keys to the White House” appeared on CBSN in June, he had yet to make his call. However, since then, he has doubled down on a Trump win on November 8th. |
