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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: E_K_S who wrote (4546)	11/14/2016 7:09:39 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (1) of 4691

I'll add to this cyclical bottom idea as I've been giving it some thought. As an example: Right now there are some RV related companies (RV = recreational vehicle) that I think look good by the metrics, but their stocks are likely to get demolished during a serious recession. I think something like WGO Winnebago and similar peers (there are many in that industry chain), or perhaps something like PII Polaris Industries or peers. The theme is high cost, consumer discretionary purchases. I think some of these companies have characteristics that a Buffettology investor might find interesting, but are quite scary as investments during a recession, but can have blue sky coming out of recession. To top it off, many of these type companies are more leveraged than you'd expect for heavy cyclicals, increasing volatility. There are many others I have on my list to check when the next recession hits. The above are some I have on my recession buy list that seem to be particularly "boom/bust" in their nature, but over full economic cycles can do pretty well assuming they survive the downturn. I'd be interested in other ideas in this vein if folks are willing to share.

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