Stock Analysis of Calpine Corp.
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Calpine Corp. from VectorVest
ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Calpine Corp. is CPN. CPN is
traded on the New York Stock Exchange and options are available on
this stock.
PRICE: CPN closed on 02-Jan-1998 at $15.50 per share.
VALUE: CPN has a Value of $23.80 per share. Value is the foundation
of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently
worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend
payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current
interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation
of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up.
When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or
later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): CPN has an RV of 1.33. On a scale of 0.00 to
2.00, an RV of 1.33 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price
appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment
in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have
attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00
when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below)
and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases,
however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well
below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of
financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this
case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and the investor is
banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This
information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has
favorable price appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of
whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently
achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): CPN has an RS rating of 0.85. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.85 is poor. VectorVest looks at safety from the
viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company)
rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the
company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating
performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the
key factors used in the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity
ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are
also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated
on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer
and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS
less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): CPN has an RT rating of 0.89. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 0.89 is poor. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term
price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics
of a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and
projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's
Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend
for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00.
Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning
point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a
Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00, the
stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a
downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): CPN has a VST-Vector rating of 1.03. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.03 is fair. VST-Vector solves the
dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV
values often have low RS values, or stocks with low RV and RS values
have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations
of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares)
handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for
ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest
VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing.
These are the ones to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): CPN has a GRT of 18 % per year. This is very
good. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per
year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends
very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If
the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease
to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): CPN has a Hold recommendation. REC
reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working
together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe,
undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky,
overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is
approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the
stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS
stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from
receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: CPN has a Stop-Price of $15.20 per share. This is
$0.30 or 1.9% below its current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over
6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a
Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week
moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each
stock's fundamentals.
DIV (Dividend): CPN does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses
on annual,regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent
disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends,
etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
EY (Earnings Yield): CPN has an EY of 12.01%. This is above the
current market average of 4.98%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER
SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): CPN has an EPS of $1.86 per share.
EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest
determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings
performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): CPN has a P/E ratio of 8.32. This
ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): CPN has a GPE of 2.16. This ratio
suggests that This ratio suggests that CPN is undervalued. Growth to P/E
ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings
Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered
to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa.
VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term
value. The RV of 1.33 for CPN is excellent.
VOL(100)s: CPN traded 79600 shares on 02-Jan-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: CPN has an Average Volume of 111266. Average
Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by
VectorVest.
% VOL: CPN had a Volume change of -28.5% from its 50 day moving
average volume.
OPEN: CPN opened trading at $15.00 per share on 02-Jan-1998.
HIGH: CPN traded at a high of $15.50 per share on 02-Jan-1998.
LOW: CPN traded at a low of $14.90 per share on 02-Jan-1998.
CLOSE: CPN Closed trading at $15.50 per share on 02-Jan-1998.
% PRC: CPN showed a Price change of 4.0% from the prior day's
closing price.
INDUSTRY: CPN has been assigned to the Energy (Other Sources)
Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and
50 Business Sectors.
CPN has below average safety with well above average upside potential.
It reflects a stock which is likely to give well above average, inconsistent returns over the long term. |
