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Strategies & Market Trends : Sonki's Links List

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To: Sonki who wrote (36)	1/3/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (2) of 395

this is my guess for SUNW target prices vs. MSFT prices. i have low med hi targets based on lvarious "market conditions". To: Addi (6407 ) From: Sonki Sunday, Dec 28 1997 2:39PM EST Reply # of 6482 addi, i agree with you though not quite 30-40 pe. as sun is not 100% sw company. 99 earning(june of 99) that is not revised up yet for merced. at pe of 25 to 30 we get the following targets. i made the follwoing table using zack june 99 erning for msft and sunw earning. note: Merced related earning is not in the picture. but also note sunw has moved from 1.7 to 1.5, inte = 2.0 and msft 1.8 the followig table shows best, worst case for pe and targets. ..........todays'pe... optimistic pe..........worst case pe. msft: 3.96 * 44.7 = 177 50 = 198.............. 35pe = 138.6 sunw: 2.70 * 20.0 = 54 { 25= 67 \|30 = 81 } 15pe = 40.5 would some one care to comment on my worst case pe, could you see it lower in a bear market? Point is if I m right about worst case there is a no loose situation in both of these stocks. Msft at 120 has a slight better upside in the worst case. On the other hand, SUNW has 100% upside while msft has 65% upside in the best case. anycommnets will be appriciated. i took today's pe and june 99 earnings and came up w. targets for june 99. i took low and and high pe that these stocks could trade at in optimistic and pessimistic time with the 99 earings. ofcourse, my assumputions is zacks estimates are close to correct as I have no other data to play with. if i were to disagree w. zacks, I would say sun ernings estmiates will move up and msft erning would move down. Merced/solaris eaning is not in the estimates. i need to make a new investment in sunw real fast if i m going to do it. look at the chart, it's been acting very strong. I have no bias towards any company only working hard more my own pockets. now barrons got hold of sun rise and i don't like that. as this stock will be hyped and manipulated from here forward. interactive.wsj.com. TA info on sunw from chris. Message 3082862 he server hardware makers like HWP, IBM and others have a significant exposure in Asia-Pacific and Japan. Auspex =12% ...DataGeneral =6% ...Digital Equipment =18% EMC Corp. =9% ...Hewlett=Packard 16% ...IBM =20% ...Lexmark =11% NCR =20% ...Silicon Graphics =23% ...Sequent =12% ...Stratus =36% Sun Microsystems =16% ...Unisys =19% Some may choose to discount this economic reality; however the fact is that Southeast Asian economies have been the engine for high growth for many of this group's members.

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