Gene - Re: "But the fact they must now compete has implications for the investor"
Intel has competed every day of their existence.
What you seem to ignore is the fact that Intel has competed SO EFFECTIVELY over the past 6 or 7 years, that it would APPEAR that they have not had to compete.
That interpretation is totally WRONG.
Intel has executed design implementations flawlessly, technology process transitions flawlessly, etc.
Where is the PowerPC that was to be the Intel killer?
Where are all the ACE/MIPS machines that were going to run Windows NT that would eliminate the need for Intel?
WHere are the Network Computers that were going to "take out" Intel?
Where are all the Java machines that were going to run on every chip from here to the moon?
Where are all those speedy Alpha-based machines that were going to take away the high end from Intel?
Even now with AMD and Cyrix achieving headlines and a lot of pumped up helium from all your posts, answer this question - how well are AMD and Cyrix competing?
AMD had to BUY NEXGEN to compete. They have muffed their process transitioning. They lose money most of the time. Their processes force them into competing with Intel on PRICE, NOT PERFORMANCE!
And Cyrix - they have one decent product - ONE - the MediaGX - that has ONE top tier OEM design win - ONE - COMPAQ -and Cyrix has lost money in all but one or two quarters in the past few years. Know anybody with a 6x86MX computer in your neighborhood?
Intel has competed exceptionally well - they have just made it look too easy for too long due to spectacular execution while their competition has stumbled and bumbled.
Now that there are a few glimpses of non-stumbling and bumbling by their competition, you make the assumption that Intel cannot compete.
Well, Gene - Intel is DRIVING PRICES DOWN faster than you can mumble sub $1000 PC - THAT IS COMPETING! They haven't pre-announced (yet!) any bad warnings estimates! AMD seems to have done that (Nov. 6, 1997) and Cyrix lost $18,000,000 in only two months of the fourth quarter.
Intel will be introducing 266 MHz Pentium MMX Tillamooks on January 12, 333 MHz Pentium IIs at the end of January, , 350/400 MHz Deschutes at the end of February, the i740 AGP 3D graphics chips, the 100 MHZ 440BX chip set, the Orion "2" 8-way SMP chip set for Deschutes/Server applications - all in the next few months.
And Intel can't compete? You are delusional!
In less than two weeks we will know if they made money and if AMD made money. Do you want to bet that AMD made more than Intel?
When you make money while driving down prices, make money while your competitors LOSE MONEY, when you maintain market share while your competition takes their best shot at taking away market share, when you continue to innovate with newer, faster, cheaper products, and introduce these at a torrid rate - that, by definition, IS COMPETING - and COMPETING EFFECTIVELY!
Paul |
