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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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FJB
lightshipsailor
To: FJB who wrote (182)11/23/2016 11:20:57 AM
From: weatherguru2 Recommendations   of 270
 
This is a great article. Weather/climate always seems to be "chicken-and-egg", however Dr. Cohen is onto a big clue to seasonal forecasts. We will see how this winter plays out.

Actually, weather/climate seems to be like genetics. One genotype/mutation may get expressed and propagate down a pathway, but it doesn't have to. I'm keeping an eye on the stratosphere. If the stratosphere temperatures continue to remain above average, we could be in for a brutal winter.

In the picture below, the "hotter" the dark black line relative to the gray line means heat is dissipating from troposphere to stratosphere. This is heat leaving the troposphere.


If you look at global temperature anomalies, you can see the spike up in early November (above) and the spike down in global temperatures (below). The warming of the stratosphere obviously isn't the only egg in the basket on global temperatures (Antarctic ice melting, La Nina developing), but it has an impact.

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