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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Rational who wrote (373)1/3/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: Tony van Werkhooven  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
First of all I want to tell all of you that I have very much appreciated the thoughts that have been expressed on this thread. It has been very stimulating.

Sankar, you indicated an expectation of an impending fall in the US $.

This leaves me somewhat confused. I certainly buy the argument that, given the ongoing trade deficits, eventually we will have to "pay" the piper. However, as long as individuals, institutions, and countries are willing to hold dollar denominated assets, the problem gets deferred. Would it not be reasonable to expect strength in the dollar as long as there is turmoil in asia? This does not eliminate the problem, but defers it to another day (beyond 1998) .

At the same time, I would agree that there is currently a very significant risk in the US markets due to a probable elimination of growth in earnings (decreases for many companies). None of this has been reflected in the markets as yet.

Thanks for your comments
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