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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16092)	1/3/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: Philip H. Lee	Read Replies (2) of 50167

>Numbers may bring relief rally if market realises that 'deflation' is definitely out of equation this may take SPA to 984 and higher to test old highs.< January is typically the strongest month for fund inflows, and I expect to see strong inflows again for Jan98. Combine that with low interest rates, low inflation, and a tangible January effect, and we should have a good month. There's some concern about Asian weakness being reflected in mid-January earnings reports. The effect of the Asian mess can be more accurately quantified at that time, and my hunch is that the markets have discounted a good portion already. Actually, the overall effect of the Asian crisis is mitigated by the fact that US companies who manufacture in Asia or get materials from Asia will benefit. I don't view deflation as much a threat as I did before. If we do see signs of deflation, I think Greenspan will lower interest rates to boost the economy. This would also help weaken the dollar and curb import-related deflation. Philip

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