SUBJECT: Regarding this thread
What a great thread this is! Although I originated it, I have not
contributed much -- the second-degree burns to my ears are still healing. Actually, I have been very busy -- both at work and at "play"
(learning Pennygold), and of course with the family over the holidays. I have learned a lot however, having actively followed the posts.
Regarding newsletter services and John Kaiser, I e-mailed Ken Evoy (the author of PennyGold) about J.C.'s claim that Kaiser broke even last year. Ken has written very positively about the quality of Kaiser's thinking in the PennyGold community mailing list that shares
techniques, new Web sites, strategies, etc. But he does not believe in ANY kind of recommendation service, especially not one that is so popular that it immediately gets posted to Stockwatch and other press services. He replied to me that Kaiser's group of 100 1997 Bottom-Fishers lost 40-50% last year (depending on where you would interpret the buy and sell as having occurred), and that anyone can go to Kaiser's Web site and download last year's recomendation issues and check the numbers for themselves. Or they can download a trial of Chartsmart, which also tracks Kaiser's performance. Several
of his picks lost over 80% of their value.
BTW, I also asked Ken how HE did with PennyGold during 1997. His reply to me was as follows:
"David, I have updated the home page recently with this info. Basically, I wish I could say I was a genius for not being in the market during 1997. But since I sold Ormico for an $18,000 profit in January, 1997, I have not done a single trade. Beginning in Q3 1996 PennyGold was simply unable to find a stock that fit its criteria. So I didn't make any money, but in this past year's market I guess that's not bad. I am, however, buying now. I have bought five stocks over the past month, and will be buying another one heavily ($40-50,000) this week, in a private placement (plus however much of this stock the Buying Group purchases). There is incredible value in today's markets -- if you diversify properly into a basket of well-chosen stocks, there is an enormous amount of money to be made over the next year or two, with minimal downside."
BTW, the PennyGold program and philosophy is also a bottom-fishing
kind of approach, with two major exception:
1) it is a do it yourself approach, I am not dependent on anyone
for hot tips,
2) as Ken also said in his e-mail to me : "David, if your SI correspondents think that Kaiser is a bottom-fisher, then I guess you could call us 'sub-bottom fisher'"
If you would permit me to correct a few misconceptions that were present in some of the earlier posts: the Pennygold program is not some mechanical "system." There is a "digital book" that explains the
theory and contains detailed "how to" info, and there is a computer program that guides you in gathering all the data necessary. The program will not even generate its report on the company until you have gathered all the data. The report is a detailed text analysis of the company's potential (By profession, I am a marketing/tech guy for a high-tech company, and I can tell you that this program uses some
sophisticated algorithms). The report finishes by giving a "Pennygold Barometer" rating, that you can compare against other companies
that you are considering.
However, even when it comes to his own program, Ken tells everyone to use their own brain, their own judgment when it comes to making the final call. He adds that the Pennygold program only makes sure that you gather all the necessary info, and that it helps you to interpret that data in the context of the pennygold strategy. I consider it to be a tool that facilities the grunt work, freeing up my own brain to
draw my own conclusions.
Since my original initiation to this group was rather painful and anxiety provoking, I have been extra-careful to stick to the facts and not try to show my enthusiasm for Pennygold. Please accept this post in that light.
Hope this has been helpful,
David |
