Thanks for the informative post. You refered to the four-year chart of the DJI and the consolidation phase in beginning in early August.
Look at 1994 on the the DJI chart. I'm betting (literally) that the period we entered in August 1997 is similar to the period beginning in January 1994. Market sectors took turns getting slammed, but overall, the market remained in a trading range.
That's where we're at now, a rolling bear market like 1994. The tech stocks, specifically semiconductor and semi equipment companies, are truly in a bear market, in my opinion. This is consistant with your TA indicating a "bear market" in the Nasdaq. However, while the tech stocks are in a bear, consumer non-durables (CL, K, HRD), baby bells (SBC), regional banks, etc. are near their alltime highs. In the next six to twelve months, the various sectors will take turns going through their own bear markets, but the overall market will remain in a trading range between about 7150 and 8500.
Just a guess, but I am putting my money where my mouth is.
Best wishes,
I2 |
