WHO IS ED YARDENI?
One of the most highly influential & respected economists in the world.
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Dr. Yardeni is the Chief Economist and a Managing Director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell (North America). Working from the firm's headquarters in New York City, he writes the Weekly Economic Analysis, Weekly Economic Briefing, and Y2K Reporter, as well as a variety of topical studies. In these publications, Dr. Yardeni explores issues and trends in the economy and financial markets that are vital to a broad spectrum of decision-makers.
Dr. Yardeni previously served as Chief Economist for C.J. Lawrence, Prudential Securities, and E.F. Hutton. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business, and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the U.S. Treasury Department in Washington, D.C. Dr. Yardeni completed his Ph.D. dissertation under Professor James Tobin, a Nobel Laureate, at Yale University. Previously, he received from Yale a masters degree in international relations. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.
Dr. Yardeni has published articles in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Barron's. He writes monthly for Nikkei Financial Daily and Nikkei Business. He has appeared on numerous television and radio shows, including Wall Street Week and CNN's Moneyline.
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WSJ: Ed Yardeni beats 55 other economists predictions for 1997.....
He won by essentially predicting higher GDP growth and lower bond rates by the end of 1997 than any of the other 55 economists polled.
Eclectic Background WSJ, 1/2/1998, pages 2 and 40, first section
Mr. Yardeni, who earned a Ph.D in Economics from Yale, has studied a variety of subjects over the years, including chemistry and computer science. [Ed's dad was a programmer!]
His eclectic background, and education, are what led him, earlier than most economists, he says, to spot the powerful changes that technology and international trade would bring.
He is also more concerned than most economists about the "year-2000"
computer programming problem. "The problem will be a disruption of the
information flow," says Mr. Yardeni. Even if only 10% of the worlds computers are not synchronized to register the year 2000, many computer systems will automatically shut down if they cannot communicate with other systems, he says. That would result in a range of problems, from airlines canceling flights to to companies not being able to automatically send bills, a situation that could retard
economic growth.
Although he doesn't believe that massive problems will result, Mr. Yardeni still puts the chance for a world-wide recession at 40% in the year 2000 from the dating problem. "We're talking about a global computer network that has been patched together over the past 40 years", he says. All the money in the world is not going to push back the deadline."
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"In fact, in Yardeni's eyes, the risks are so large that the chances for a Y2K-induced recession in the Year 2000 were a whopping 100%."
News article: y2ktimebomb.com
Full testimony: techstocks.com
Tony Keyes & Ed Yardeni both spoke in front of different Senate Subcommittees Nov 4. They know each other pretty well.
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Even if all the software all around the world is repaired in time, we also need to replace "embedded systems" that might not work on January 1, 2000. These are microprocessor devices that are used to control the operation of equipment, machinery, or production lines. They can be found in telephone systems, fire control systems, heating and ventilating systems, elevators, security systems, bank vaults, water and sewage systems, power stations, automated factories, airplanes, trains, buses, cars, air traffic control systems, radar systems, traffic lights, telephone switches, and satellites. They are EVERYWHERE!
Above quote is from a paper Ed Yardeni wrote in July, 1997.
yardeni.com
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ED YARDENI
E-mail: yardeni@ix.netcom.com
Web site: yardeni.com
CK HOUSTON'S FAVORITE YARDENI LINK:
Center for Cypereconomics: yardeni.com
Y2K Reporter: yardeni.com
Each time a new "issue" comes out, I print it and include it in my "Y2K Reporter" book. This & Ed's biography (above) is a good way to convince others about the seriousness of Y2K.
Yardeni Testimony Subcommittee on Financial Services & Technology 11/4/97
senate.gov
Emphasis on Infrastructure & Embedded System problems. |
