Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.92

+3.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Lane who wrote (14112)	1/4/1998 10:01:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Lane, My take on the next 6-12 mos. is considerably more bullish than many on this thread. Contrary to practically every analyst, I do not see INTC leading the techs out of this slump. INTC's est. eps forecast for FY98 is somewhere near $3.95 if I'm not mistaken. This is not a great advance over FY97 and puts the stock in fairly valued territory IMO, versus where many of the equips are currently trading. For AMAT, once we get to May-June timeframe, the market has to look towards '99. This IMO will justify a price significantly higher than the current one. Also, AMAT is to this point at least, keeping firm on it's FY98 est of $2.08-$2.15. KIM however, that the current stock price assumes an eps considerably lower than that w/ some houses estimating $1.69. So even the absence of bad news and the meeting of current forecasts by AMAT mgt. could drive the price much higher since as of now, no analyst's believe AMAT's guidance. I do agree that the next few mos. will probably be rocky and thus good for ST trading as you mentioned you were doing. Please note that these assumptions do not take into account further Asian debacles which are entirely possible. Regards, Brian DISCALIMER: During the past 3 mos., I've been wrong more often than right ;-)

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