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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 366.07-0.1%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (125927)12/9/2016 10:14:09 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 217561
 
The non-linearity of history.

As one player rushes into one direction, gain speed, there are forces already at play that, once affected by the new trajectory forces non-linearity.

The 30 years of China was a good run, and China was doing the right thing. The problem is that it requires a clean break with the past to move one step up the league.

Let me make an analogy. You don't strap a single rocket to spiral out of a body's gravity. You burn multi-stages.

The first stage Deng burned nicely and the bird flew. The 1st stage motor is the biggest and heaviest has to be jettisoned and burn the second stage sending up the lighter vehicle..

The strategic mistake China made is to keep burning the same stage up to space. The whole China is carrying a hell of a lot of dead wood. It comes a time will return back to Earth.

Xi tries to create China Light but the effects of China 1.0 is too big a push for it to escape the Stalinist economy, i.e., throw labor capital and resources at the economy

Perhaps in the past, creating China Light and gradually moving out of the Stalinist economy would have worked. Not today. The pace of the economy and its interconnectedness do no allow

Among many factors conspiring against the linear trajectory of China Inc. there are tow majors:

  1. It needs the outside world to keep the economy going but China is too non-normal to be accepted on the overall scheme of things. Thus its accepted in Ethiopia, Mozambique, Brazil and Angola but not in the rest of the world.
  2. The internal economy has ran out of juice.


1. forces it to project power outside its sphere of influence which China has no experience in doing it and the reaction always come. China has to pull the wallet out to get Ethiopia, Mozambique, Brazil and Angola

2. There are too many strong interests within China in keeping the internal economy as the main engine of growth as the foreign economy projection does not accommodate all the major players.
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