> Refering to the previous post refering to Windows NT gaining
> market share, I think this represents a real problem with Sun.
> Microsoft owns the market out there, and most companies,
> especially large ones, have a huge investment in Microsoft
> equipment
These numbers really are a red herring. They do show one view of
competetion out there but do not tell the whole story.
I would take the stock price increase that Barron articles
bring :-) but I do not necessarily agree with their view of
the world. Here are some random comments on the world as
I see it. Summary is that I do see non-Microsoft alternatives
surviving as long as they get their focus on providing customer
solutions.
The "client-side" story for Unix was lost > 5 years ago.
Remember a time when Newspaper job listing were all full of need
for "X windows programmers" ? Now client side if owned by
Microsoft and represents a large volume.
The upgrade path for that market is to go with Windows NT (a
product with enhanced capabilities even when viewed as client
side OS) and Windows95/98.
What I would like to see how many of these Windows NT sales are
non-sales for Windows95/98.
The latest client side competetion from non-Microsoft world
are things like Java/Netscape/Lotus-e-suite/whatever-else but
none of them is seen as being there yet enough to displace
Windows (NT or 95/98) on the client side. That "fat-client"
market is there for Unix but not in large numbers. Cheap boxes
may help here and we have heard recent rumors that there might
be some coming. If any of these non-WIndows turns into a
real "competetive market", that would be good for non-Microsoft
vendors (whatever few are trying to compete with Microsoft instead
of throwing in the towel :-)). Also I do see some distractions
in the Java camp like trying to sell server side applications.
I saw a Java Web server being sold on Javasoft web site. They
can probably use their time on better things.
The server side Market ofcourse has Unix and WIndows NT competing.
Competetion is good wherever it exists though Microsoft is trying
its best to turn that into a proprietary-locked market too but
has not suceeded yet. Sun is a good player here and so are other
alternatives like HP, Network Appliances, DEC and other box makers
with server side boxes to sell with non-Microsoft OSs (though parts
of HP and DEC sell boxes with Microsoft OSs but there is nothing
wrong depending on how they handle the conflict of interest.
As long as they let them function independently and
not as cover of throwing in the towel to Microsoft :-))
Sun's agreement with Intel represents good news for stock of
Intel box makers that license Suns's OS Solaris(e.g NCR).
That is the stock I would buy on that news not Sun's. I do not
think Sun will get a real return-on-investment by just selling OS
but maybe intangibles like increased Market for Solaris. For Sun
stock it can be considered even as bad news since with identical
OS, the NCR boxes may compete with Sun boxes and it is upto
Sun to show how they will handle that conflict-of-interest (similar
to the HP and DEC conflict-of-interest with selling Microsoft
OS boxes).
In this game of Monopoly, maybe Microsoft will win it all
and twister is often here remidning us of that :-). That is
good for Microsoft shareholders but not good for society in
general.
But maybe it will not and Sun, HP, Network Appliance etc of this
world and not to mention the forces of innovation and competetition
will survive and everyone will win. (Yes ! regardless of how my
investments perform, I do not think a Microsoft-only world would be
a good thing).
The scenario you point out is that large MIS organization will
continue to buy from Mircosoft. These are same people who
always bought from IBM before. That might be true to a
certain extent. I hope the MIS community will mature to look
at alternatives (it certainly has fron the IBM-only past).
On the other hands, people like Sun, HP will have to get better
at providing solutions that fit their needs possibly by
partnering with integrators. That is something that IBM did well
and now Microsoft is on its way of learning to do well. |
