Hello Elmat
Re <<... To which I would retort" To a certain degree yes, but let's not forget that the US, (again the US) needed a show case of capitalism to show the USSR how nice their system was as compared with the paradise of the workers.>>
... some would say to every degree yes, else the middle east, latin america, etc would be all doing it.
Re <<I see what you mean, that out of the too many countries that wish to export manufactured goods, the world picked China to do it.
Exactly. Where else there was a reserve army in the rural areas ready to move to the urban areas and work hard with a strong hand behind them? No where else.>>
not exactly. The world did not pick China as an exported. China exported, first enabled by the overseas Chinese diaspora, and then tagged by every other tom dick and harry. I am clear on the time line, because I was on station circa 1982.
Take solar cell for example, it used to be the clear case where China made something like 20% of global solar cells and used none, and now making 70% of global solar cells and uses 12% which happens to be equal to the total installed base of solar cells of some nations. Did the world pick China to export solar cells, or team China, through exercise of diligence, simply created and expanded a business?
Am guessing, next ups would be cellular phones, nuclear power, drone swarms, trains, ships, islands, super computers, ultra long range air-to-air missiles, rocket-delivered torpedoes, underwater gliders, space station workspace, hypersonic planes, genetically modified everything, people, people, and more people, etc etc
Re <<Re <<That is what China lacks. People who can function in the modern economy. They will keep doing wonders inside China but once they go out, they are out of their depth. The worrying thing is that they do not know that they are out of their depth.>>
... Yeup, look at all the failed Chinese all around the world.
They are the exception, not the rule. Look to the Indians succeeding and then look to India. We cannot gauge China or India by looking into diaspora individuals. And let me add that they are succeeding because they left their country of origin.>>
... some exception. China is not going to run out of modern-world capable people.
The great big difference between the Chinese and the Indian diaspora is that the Chinese diaspora return in strong-enough numbers back by plenty-enough capital.
Re <<The exporting model has no respect to size. You applied, succeeded. Once the set of circumstances that gave raise to the model is exhausted, it no longer works.>>
... wrong. Going forward China will use much of what is made in China, and export at the margin, but that margin is enormous, and for all practical purposes look like work done by a primarily exporting nation except it would not be true. This is happening as we dialogue.
Re <<The developed world needed a manufacturing platform. It got that in Asia as it migrated manufacturing.>>
... the world is changing, and what is considered developed shall soon-enough fall by the way side per returning to natural size, to quote you. The process is very exciting to watch but only if one is actually watching and knows what one is watching. The last 15 years has been thrilling on this and companion thread. The next 15 should be awesome.
Re <<Now there is no longer what to send to Asia to make.
Primary sector Agriculture. Secondary Sector Industry Tertiary Sector ServicesService comprises upwards 60% of any country GDP. The rest is Industry and Agriculture>>
All three sectors are and shall continue to undergo tremendous change, and the largest aggregate groups of 'users' shall drive the change. The largest aggregate groups of users on this planet is just two, and of the two, only one is organised.
Re <<Just industry cannot allow economic growth forever and that is why GDP in China will go to 2 or 3%, which is extremely good as we a re talking about a $13 trillion economy. But note that these 2 or 3% are internal growth not generated by huge exports as the model is dead.
it took was studying, learning, adapting, saving, investing, and working. I guess I am wrong.
Yes, you are wrong but you have a friend to correct you.>>
Best to check your premise, and see that you are way off base. Trust you shall hesitate enough to blink at the light, and soon.
Re <<The intellectual class is necessary because they are the ones who generate ideas. That is the learning part I am alluding to now. Now you cannot persuade Elmat that a small clique comprised by the sons and daughters of the old Red Guard would create these ideas doing backroom deals.>>
As I said, check your premise, especially the part about the sons and daughters of the red guards, and also be cautious about the intellectuals, for not all intellectuals are helpful. Check premise.
Re <<The rest of world are doing exactly the same thing. studying, learning, adapting, saving, investing, and working.>>
... hmmnnnn ... you and I may be looking at different planets. I could be wrong, but whatever the current trend line actually is, is okay for the premise of my macro.
Re <<Thus, GDP growth will slow down and growth will be organic.>>
... I suppose organic at 6.5+ % and along the way belt up africa and road works to rome should be side effects.
Re <<No hope of returning to 36% of global GDP then.
We would love that as we could be exporting the inputs for that growth and getting rich. But it is not going to happen and Xi China Light is pointing into that direction.>>
... the next 15 years on this thread should be a lot of fun. |
