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Biotech / Medical : Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc.

NWBO 0.240

+3.4%

Oct 30 3:58 PM EDT

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From: John McCarthy

12/18/2016 2:28:49 PM

of 759

flipper44	Sunday, 12/18/16 02:13:39 PM
Re: marzan post# 89931
Post # of 89976

Marzan, here is what LL appears to know in a blinded manner along those lines.

There are 331 patients in the trial.

86% have been treated at some point with DCVax-L. She does not know which ones.

She does know 66.666667% were originally treated with DCVax-L. She does not know which ones.

That leaves about 19% in the placebo group did not cross over. She does not know which ones.

That leaves about 14% in the placebo group that did cross over. She does not know which ones.

The trial is still blinded -- well at least as of December 15, 2016. I'm guessing they were literally within one or two events at that time.

The 19% placebo (aka: 58% of placebo group) that did cross over necessarily had an event.

The 14% (aka: 42% of placebo group) that did not cross over may or may not have had an event, and/or they may have chose not to cross over or could not cross over due to no event or due to medical status or death. One observer on Yahoo noticed that the slide in the presentation seemed to suggest there was no one left to cross over from the placebo group, but without more, it only remains a suggestion. I tend to agree that is what the chart shows if it was drafted correctly, and I also stated a few weeks ago (for a number of reasons) that I thought we were near the point. Still, with all the reasoning I've come up with in previous posts, it is still conjecture.

If all placebos have evented, it would likely mean the final stat would be 100% placebo evented and about 62% of treatment evented when 248 events are reached. That is a 38% difference. That's very large difference, but it does not guarantee success. We must wait for the unblinding to know which patients had longer or shorter PFS. Only then can we know if the results are what optimists like me expect.

Let me put it this way. It's enough info to go forward with two new trials with Merck and BMY.

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