Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 212.48

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11:50 AM EST

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To: JR2 who wrote (29324)	1/4/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (4) of 61433

Glen remember that I am quite slow in deductive theory... Does that mean that the NT rumors might be the SUGAR DADDY coated with SHVA on top? Please spell it out for me if u can. THNX jr2,and blue. Jason, We are all guessing since we are dealing with rumors. No facts with which to work. I am not sure what you meant about the "sugar Daddy" in this context. NT and LU are direct competitors. Both make a lot of voice switches and equipment. There is no question that it is easier and for more efficient to move voice and data over data lines than voice and data over voice lines. The future deployments will be data lines. Thus, data swtches will be in demand far more than voice switches. NT and LU are trying to become data equipment suppliers. At present, NT is leading. They have created a fair amount of WAN ATM in house. They buy their remote access from SHVA and resell it un the NT name. They buy their ATM software from FORE and resell it under the NT name. The SHVA remote access cannot hold a candle to the ASND equipment. SHVA would likely even admit that. Secondly, SHVA has to make a profit before selling their remote access to NT as does FORE on their software. Acquiring ready made and market products takes less time than creation from scratch. NT and LU both know this. LU has the problem of taxation prior to October of 98 due to tax laws from the spin off from T. Both NT and LU are asked to bid for any major data deployment. Price and quality is likely the most important factor. NT would prefer to make remote access in house like owning Ascend. Lu is buying time making small aquisitions such as Livingston. Livington is better than nothing. ASND's product line inludes great remote access and WAN equipment. COMS does too but with their package are NICs, hubs and other items not of great interest to NT or LU. NT makea a bid for ASNDat $35/share. ASND says at least forty to make a deal. NT does not know ASND's future and is aware of the LU tax problem. They refuse to go higher. LU is now getting close to a position to bid higher and not have the deal close until October. It is likely that we will see LU and NT bid for ASND. Neither wishes to pay more than is necessary. If NT acquires ASND, SHVA is history. NT no longer needs them. LU cannot afford to have NT get ASND until LU gets a good line of data products themself. The rumors are likely more fact than rumors. Both companies have made bids for ASND but ASND wants more. ASND was waiting for Q1 98 to see what LU will bid and then give NT a chance to beat it etc. This is my opinion. One I have had since last September. Gary felt ASND would be acquired before the end of 1997. I felt Q1 98. Neither of us know but since my time frame was longer out, I can stand by original projection. At least until the end of Q1 98. Did I help any? Glenn

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