fyi, I posted the below on the MF AGPH board ... I don't normally double post like this, but I'd be interested in any comments ...
Subject: Q2 Viracept sales estimates
Date: Sun, Jan 4, 1998 10:03 PM
From: PeterS7326
Message-id: <19980104220300.RAA11129@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Hello All,
Does anyone want to venture an estimate as to Viracept sales for Q2? Here's how I've modeled sales:
US sales
Oct total IMS scrips 40,830 Actual
Nov total IMS scrips 40,013 Actual
Dec total IMS scrips 40,013 est, assuming w/ holidays flat w/ previous mo - just as Nov was flat w/ Oct
Total IMS scrips 120,856
Adj factor non-IMS * 1.73 (computed from Q4 and Q1 data - data supports it, but higher than other's est)
Total US mo scrips 209,081
US rev per mo $442 ($5300 per year / 12)
US Q2 revenue $ 92,500,000
Eur Q2 revenue 6,000,000 just a guess, Q1 was $4,500,000 ... still mostly pipeline filling
Total Q2 Viracept $ 98,500,000
For the rest of the FY, I estimate 20% Q on Q increase in US sales, and 50% Q on Q increase in Europe sales. BTW, I think European sales will ramp slowly, due to the complexities of gaining reimbursement in each country, and the fact that some % of US sales are fills for Europe patients. Together, these generate the following estimates for the rest of the FY:
Q3 Viracept estimates
US $111,000,000 (Q2 est *1.2)
Europe $ 9,000,000 (Q2 est *1.5)
Total Q3 $120,000,000
Q4 Viracept estimates
US $135,000,000 (Q3 est *1.2)
Europe $ 13,500,000 (Q4 est *1.5)
Total Q4 $148,500,000
FY 98 Viracept estimates
Q1 actual $ 79,500,000
Q2 estimate $ 98,500,000
Q3 estimate $120,000,000
Q4 estimate $148,500,000
Total $446,500,000
In the absence of better information, this is the best I can do. I haven't modeled earnings yet, although if I get the chance, it's of course an essential exercise. $446.5M isn't quite Larry Moss's >$500M ... the main difference I suspect is my belief that a high % of IMS new scrips are refills from a different pharmacy, not net new patients. But $446.5M would be quite an achievement for the product's first full year on the market ...
Anyone else want to chime in on this subject?
Peter |
