Jim, regarding GW,
If the stock performs as predicted and if it only performs at 1/2 of the predictions of Jeffries & Co. , and assume their 1998's earning is $0.14 and 1999's earning is $0.24, then GW's high will be $7 for 1998, IMO.
If the estimates are 0.27 and 0.48 however, GW's PE should be in line with its peers, namely NBR, PTEN, UTI, BDI. Therefore, I would look at this group and see where they trade in the future and compare GW to them. The old high, $10, is attainable only if we go back to the irrational exuberant mode a few months ago. GW's PE will still be a whopping 10/0.27 = 37 in 1998. I would seriously considering selling when the land driller PE's approach 30 in 1998. Therefore, my best guess for GW in 1998 is it will continue to be trader's stock with big (30%) swings from up and down in many short cycles. I intend to trade GW and not hold it long term. |
