It's a pennant, not a saucer.
The key difference, as has been pointed out, is the declining volume. This might be the holiday effect. We'll know tomorrow. If volume isn't way up, then the recent chart pattern is bearish.
This pattern can be seen for all the semi-equips. Pennants (ASMLF, AMAT, KLAC), flags (KLIC, NVLS).
Fundamentals are still bad. With the Korea debacle, governments (or if not them, then the IMF) are not going to let banks lend money to semi companies to buy equipment to pursue market share regardless of cost. The semi industry has to re-establish positive cash flow before capital equipment purchases turn up. The commodity side of the industry is the most sensitive indicator of this. When DRAM prices stop their freefall, it will be time to buy semi-equips. Every company in the industry moves in lock-step, so the important thing is to pick the right time to buy. The particular company you buy is a far less important decision. I'm very long AMAT, and thinking of adding KLAC when the bottom finally happens, sometime in 1998. |
