Mark,
I don't believe we are trading down here for a reason,other than fear,and the earnings estimates for this quarter. Insitutional investors are very near sighted,and cannot see the potential,nor do they care about it, for next year. Remember they have a great new account with 21st Century in Chicago,potentially a 10% revenue from a 2 billion build out over the next few years. They have a great account with New Media and CVUS,which is installing their modems this first quarter. I believe LMDS could be the greatest single technology in telecommunications for the next 10 years. It has coverage,bandwidth,low power,speed,and the cost savings over alternate technologies is phenomenal. HLIT and CVUS have their hands on a potential home run,greater than anything we have seen. HLIT is using Stanford Telecom chips,who is working with HP for a LMDS system. The competition comes from Bosche Telecom(who bought the technology from Texus Instruments),HP,and Nortel(who bought the technology and the whole company-BNI in Canada). The future is so bright we may need glasses. The p/sales ratio of HLIT is under 1.8,and I believe 1.5 not counting last quarter. The Asian crisis does not affect HLIT to any extent,their only client there that we know of is Wharf Cable of Hong Kong. Though they are looking for Chinese speaking high level engineers. So Hong Kong and China are their only exposure there. CHina is installing the greatest amount of phone lines in the world right now,and has a large fiber optic build going on in the north. Look at HLIT's fundamentals,I just bought more at 11. So my buys are at 19,13,and 11, average for me is 15. I believe we may see 30 by next Christmas,and that may still be undervalued.
Someone wanted an article about upstream modulation systems,here is a good one from this month's CED magazine.
cedmagazine.com
Hiram(heavily invested in HLIT,and a strong believer). |
