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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.29+0.6%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (127249)12/28/2016 3:45:30 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 217585
 
THE METHODOLOGY
Look to the past. Look to the present. Analyse what happened in between and extrapolate to the future.

I looked to how long it took for Brazil to catch up with the US. Then looked into how long it took for China to catch up with Brazil. All in terms of GDP per head.

That was the data. Here comes the massage of the data. What China achieved in the past 30 years was the down hill phase. Everything was going (all wind in the sails) for China.

Now comes the part China has got no experience with:
The plateau phase that stretches from 2014 to about end of 2020's. I am saying that China will be Japanized in the next 15 years.

NOW FOR THE CURVE THING
You seem to think that there will be a time warp that China is the mass that curves the spacetime and that will allow China to arrive ahead of the rest of the world in the coming decades. If that time warp existed and a country could "tunnel" through it to achieve what the rich world achieved, other countries have already done that, don't they?

I do not think in terms of curves. I think in terms of hurdles that countries have to jump to get to the other side.

It is impossible to get out of the middle income trap. Countries would need to be another animal to be able to get out of it. That means jettisoning a lot of the old baggage -which are the hurdles countries need to jump over- they carry to achieved high development.

Flush down the toilet history. Fuck culture for it is useless. Throw overboard religion. Destroy the old elite.

Countries cannot do that. Muslim religion. China history. Brazil culture.

It is dawning on me that you are not a man who read books but Elmat is worth half a library


NOW FOR THE SQUIGGLE
Countries tried in the past to be too clever to their own good and made squiggle curves to dodge the hurdles put in front of them.
  • Rob beg or steal
  • Beg thy neighbor
  • Outright conquer


It never worked
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