Fertilizer stocks.
I haven't followed UAN. Looks undervalued on some metrics I like. Revenue about flat last five years. I have no positive view about "the food deflation/reversion to mean" possibility this year or next, and for now I don't see UAN as a buy for me.
AGU looks overvalued on metrics I am using, YARIY maybe fairly-valued, CF maybe somewhat undervalued (I wanted to reduce my relatively large position, and so I've made sales), MOS maybe somewhat undervalued. (I have reduced my position.)
Are fertilizer stock gains part of the Trump rally, or are they a harbinger of the fertilizer cycle improving for these companies? I don't know, but for me I'll take some shares off the table and deploy assets to where I believe I can see better opportunites or opportunities that seem to have a clearer picture. That would be housing stocks for me, for example.
As I say, I don't see that well, so very possible fertilizer stocks are a better bet than housing stocks, or just a good bet themselves for a buyer/holder now with a 12-18 mo holding perspective. Not for me though. |
