So a couple of thoughts.
First, I expect the journal article next week, they can't do RD update on 132 till that is out.
Second, the 132 data must be holding up quite well, otherwise they wouldn't have this meeting. 132 is the only compelling part of this company, nothing else at RD day will be material, and they wouldn't hold an event if that 132 data was not compelling.
If the 132 data is in fact good, it means that AA is fairly likely.
I think the showdown with Venbio is about two different things. First is the critical issue of the quality of management. We all have our disappointments in how current management has run the company, and it is logical to think that changing management would do our stock a world of good.
The second issue is one of corporate strategy. My firm opinion is that G intends to partner 132 (though it has taken far longer than it should have) in the near term, have the partner run the P3 and use the upfront to develop the rest of IMMU pipeline.
I believe Venbio thinks 132 is a home run, and that they want to keep the entire upside. Therefore, they do not want to partner, they will instead do a raise (the notion that they can get non-dilutive financing through some creative scheme doesn't pass the smell test IMO), and they will use IMMU funds to run the P3 while filing for AA. This strategy makes more sense if one assumes that a Venbio takeover will result in the street revaluing IMMU to 10 dollars a share or more. The company could raise 250 million dollars with a 20% dilution. This strategy will work wonders if the FDA grants AA to 132. |
