<<Contagion? Deflation? Real Trend Is Evolution>>
Hi Pat,
I guess Flanigan is basically pointing out increased average worker productivity via technology. Of course this trend is true, and has been true for the history of the market this century. But if you concoct a situation with a bit of speculation, a hint of overcapacity, a dash of corruption, a smidgen of panic, and a heaping of ineptitude, you can still lose your shirt investing even in a period of increasing worker productivity. At some point Flanigan's investment technique will be described as the "head in the sand" approach to adverse market news. The reason he will probably get away with it is that it is exceedingly difficult to time the top, if not impossible, and the odds, given the market's history, favor his approach entirely. It's only a matter of time, however, before he will be wrong, in a very big way (hopefully tomorrow for my option's sake <G>.) I don't pretend to know the answer, but the risk of being in the market, now, seems unecessarily high to me.
Regards,
Richard
PS The LA Times link didn't work for me. |
