And here is a post from S.A. that gives a wide ranging introduction to this topic. Lots of comments to and possible investment ideas in this post, as well as speculation about the social ramifications.
Self-Driving Cars Are A Disaster For The Car Industry, But Great For The Rest Of Us
Jan. 6, 2017 9:14 AM ET
About: Tesla Motors (TSLA), Includes: AAPL, GOOG, GOOGL, INTC, MBLY, NVDA, UBER
By Otzar Capital Advisors
Summary
- Apple and Google have invested hundreds of millions in self-driving cars; neither will end up being a significant player in the space.
- Self-driving cars are only attractive to fleet managers, delivery and taxi services; consumers will mostly not buy them.
- The big winners from the paradigm shift to self-driving cars are mobility-as-a-service providers and self-driving parts providers like Nvidia.
- The big losers will be almost all existing car manufacturers; only a handful that evolve will survive a massive market crunch.
Society will see a tremendous benefit in terms of lives saved, lower carbon footprint and lower transportation costs; we applaud Tesla for forging the way ahead (despite the costs).
How Cars Will Take Over the World
We see three stages for self-driving cars to become prevalent.
Stage 1 is where we are now. There are a handful of fully autonomous cars driving about, which are the research vehicles. These cars are limited to certain jurisdictions under certain rules until laws and regulations are sorted out to allow them to drive freely (with no human master) on the roads.
Stage 2, which will not likely happen until the early, perhaps mid-2020s, is where fully autonomous cars are being sold and there they share the road with human drivers. This is where things are interesting. We believe the fully autonomous cars with no steering wheel or pedals will be primarily purchased by delivery firms, fleets and taxi operators, while cars supporting fully autonomous modes with overrides for human control will still be sold to consumers at the high-end of the market. We think car ownership will start to fall considerably and it will make more economic sense for a consumer to subscribe to a mobility service or order a self-driving taxi when needed, rather than owning.
At some point, perhaps after 10 or 20 years, governments will choose a date at which point cars with steering wheels and pedals cannot be sold anymore and a later date at which it will become illegal for humans to drive except on designated tracks for hobbyists.
This starts the final stage where the road is only for self-driving cars. Car ownership shifts almost exclusively to fleets, companies or taxi services and mobility essentially becomes a utility for the consumer. Only the type of person (or company) that would like to own a private jet would own a private self-driving car.
Utopia
We believe the world will be a much better place when this happens: most importantly, fatalities from car accidents will fall very significantly in the order of 95%+. Road capacity will increase significantly and traffic will become a thing of the past as cars can travel at high speed, close to each other, being fully and instantaneously aware of what all the surrounding cars are doing. Cars themselves will be used much more efficiently and be on the road for 95% of their lives, and the number of cars in existence will fall dramatically. Street parking will be a thing of the past. There will be more inner city green space. All cars will be electric, charging stations will be prevalent and global carbon dioxide output due to cars will be significantly curtailed.
I'm hopeful to see this in my lifetime (I'm in my early 40s) but I don't think it's likely.
continues at seekingalpha.com |
