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Microcap & Penny Stocks : IATV - ACTV Interactive Television
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To: Jeff Carroll who wrote (1301)1/5/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Jeff Carroll  Read Replies (3) of 4748
 
Hi all and happy new year!

Here's an armchair analysis to ponder... please let me know if any of this is inaccurate. I'm trying to figure out how much of it is speculation.

If:

NLV has orders for 15mm cable set-top boxes
and
IATV software/capability is in those boxes
and
IATV has agreements with the MSO's (like TCI) that will be receiving those boxes
and
IATV has agreements with the channel providers (like Fox) to send an IATV multichannel feed to the MSO and then to customers
and
IATV gets $4/month/box if it is used for an IATV feed

then

with all 15mm boxes on line and in use (end of 1999-2000?) IATV should have a revenue stream of 720mm$/yr.

If we assume one half of the market penetration (26%) of the canadian test we have an income stream of $94mm/yr.

If we assume cost of sales of $20mm/yr (more than double current rates) we have $74mm left. If we assume 25mm shares outstanding (rea l # is about 18mm I think) we have about $3/share earnings. This ignores revenue from the educational end of the business.

Lots of assumptions here....

At $3/share earnings, and a 20 p/e it seems this could be a $60 stock in a year or two, or as soon as 2mm boxes are online and in use with an IATV feed.

Comments?

Jeff Carroll
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