Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Salah Mohamed who wrote (3916)	9/27/1996 2:50:00 PM
From: E_K_S	of 42771

Hi Salah: Dodn't write off this technology too fast. Remember we have one very significant change in the industry over the last year....UTILITY DEREGULATION starting here in California. Now why is this important? The utilities will have to share their distribution system. If they can add additional 'utility' to their current infrastructure from NEST technology and sell this as an added value service there will be more market forces for them to implement this fast. NEST Technology will add marginal revenue to the big utilities bottom line. I see this as only one application of many other value added uses for the utilities wired infrastructure. For example, I have located one company here in Silicon Valley who has developed a networked software 'energy' utilization package which essentially helps these utilities maximise the 'load' on their lines. This is important as these utilities purchase power from the cheapest source (usualy hydro-electric in the North West) and transport it to customers in California. The software calculates many factors including routing path, resistance and load loss, peak client demand and on the fly can determine when it is time to purchase power or utilize local generating plants. Power brokers are using this software as well. Recently this company has doubled their activity as a result of the CA deregulation legislation. I see NEST as the potential technology which will help integrate an even more sophisticated networked software utilization package described above. The motivation for change and steped up development will be the deregulation legislation recently signed by Gov. Pete Wilson for California last month. Prior to the passage of this legislation, there was no immidiate monitary pay back to the utilities to implement this technology. Now with competition, watch for renewed activity in this area. Remember all the mergers when the tellecommunication bill passed and how the industry changed in 18 months. This will happen to all of the utility companies in the U.S., once Federal deregulation is evenutually phased in by 2000. The CA program is one of the first 'test' programs. Novell's NEST is the right technology at the right time. They should continue to develop and look at selling utilization 'licenses' to as many developers and users in the next 18 months. EKS

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