| | | Hello Mqurice, It is a chipper Sunday morning here in Hong Kong.
I am doing work efficiently and should be able to have a reasonable break over the Lunar New Year holiday.
Re the Donald, I was of the early opinion that he could win and later would win. There were a few days of touch and go. Now he is in. America has chosen a [select adjective] Trump family business over a [select adjective] Clinton family dynasty, and choose, imo, wisely.
My only thought re the D's domestic policy is that he best do something for the little folks, but should the top 5% end up disproportionately better off at the apparent cost of the 95%, then irrespective of whatever may happen in 2020, not good for beyond. There is a tipping point to people's patience. The Martin Armstrong 2032 scenario perhaps depends on America business-as-usual until tipping point. We should still be around to see the chapter play out.
My figuring re the D and China, the D should be okay and maybe even great for China.
By read of some industries people paid me to ruminate on, I gathered some thought elements.
Take the tire industry. USA 2009 punitive tariff on China tire export resulted in a small uptick in USA tire manufacturing, encouraged China tire manufacturers to do better, both from base in China and from colonies elsewhere. For example, one single China company invested in Thailand nearly twice as much as GoodYear and Bridgestone combined. In the mean time China exports more tires than ever, and exports more than ever to the USA from all bases in and outside of China.
Then there is solar, and white goods, and and and.
Should for whatever reason the D chief-decides to embargo China on things in addition to Intel Xeon chips as the O did in early 2015, and such same, the outcome should be the same as what happened to Intel, now under direct threat across the board as China does whatever the necessary in chip design, applications, production, etc etc.
My reckoning re the D and the ROTW, every country for itself, and good luck to all.
I continue to like gold. Should all go right, the Aussie gold projects should undergo rendering this year, allowing redeployment into opportunities to be caused by the D.
Am figuring that the D, despite of his strong Dollar chattering, should be good for gold. His magic economic formulae should be just twists and variations on confrontation, devaluation, dissipation, devolution, confiscation, redistribution, conflagration, and dissolution.
Watch & brief.
Cheers, TJ
P.s. Trump seems to be keen on infrastructure, but in context of America-First, his proposed numbers are as small as his imagination is limited from sitting at the bottom of the deep water well and staring at the sky, thinking the universe is a small circle.
In the mean time there are whole new old world to build-up even as the locals are encouraged by some to just-say-no to all the goodies
edition.cnn.com
All aboard! The Chinese-funded railways linking East Africa
(CNN)Near Africa's horn on the easternmost part of the continent, a shiny new electric railway runs alongside an old abandoned track through both arid desert and green highlands.
Some 750 kilometres (466 miles) long, the $4 billion line connects landlocked Ethiopia to the Red Sea coast in Djibouti.
Officially inaugurated last week after test runs kicked off in October, it is expected to cut the travel time between the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa and the port in Djibouti from three days by road to 12 hours by rail.
Like a number of other planned lines it was partly funded and built by Chinese companies. It could soon link up with neighboring Sudan and Kenya -- where the first part of a new $13 billion Kenyan railway connecting Mombasa to Nairobi is taking shape.
The sprawling network is planned to continue into South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, as part of transnational efforts to connect countries within East Africa.
This could transform how goods and people move, and the increased number of lines is expected to boost trade in countries like Kenya, says Kuria Muchiru, advisory partner, East Africa, at PwC in Kenya.
"Because we probably have about 4,000 trucks everyday making the trip up from Mombasa into Nairobi, and some go farther on," adds Muchiru.
The ports are where the magic happens, with 90% of African imports and exportsconducted by sea which can be an issue for trade coming into landlocked countries.
"The new lines will have access to the ports and be able to almost offload directly onto the train and then straight onto inland locations," Muchiru says.
Billions in loans
The new lines are part of the so-called LAPPSET rail project and the EAC Rail Sector Enhancement Project, also called the East African Railway Masterplan, and managed by the East Africa Community (EAC) -- an intergovernmental organization run by Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda -- together with consulting company CPCS.
But railways don't come cheap, and African countries are borrowing heavily from China to scrape the funds together.
In the 10-year period between 2004 and 2014, African countries borrowed nearly $10 billion for railway projects from China, facilitated by the China Export Import Bank (Exim), according to researchers by SAIS China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-CARI).
Why does China invest so enthusiastically?
China sees the railways as an investment opportunity which also creates an export market for their booming steel and construction industries, says Deborah Brautigam, professor of international political economy and director of SAIS-CARI.
"They have overcapacity in China. They have steel that they want to use. They've got experienced companies that know how to build railways."
But it's not without risks, and whether the loans will be fully repaid remains to be seen, she adds.
"That's still a question mark."
However, while countries often dream big, not all projects make it past the planning stage, according to Brautigam.
Between 2000 and 2011, the Chinese backed more than 1,700 projects, from buildings to dams in 50 African countries at a cost of $75bn.
Looking at larger projects, five railways have materialized so far, with the Tazara railway -- which links Tanzania and Zambia -- being the first to be completed back in the 1970s.
The other four projects are in Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya and Sudan, says Brautigam.
The West not as keen
The US and other Western countries have financed some railways and other infrastructure projects across the continent, but they haven't been as keen to invest as China, partly due to a fear that the African countries won't keep up the maintenance, Brautigam says.
"[They] have put some money into these railways but not very much. They really haven't wanted to finance them."
"They felt, and probably rightly, that these governments were not doing a good job with what they had already," she adds.
So are these new East African railway projects feasible? Andrew Grantham, editor at Railway Gazette International who covers railway developments in the area, says that as long as there are funds and political will, there are no technical hurdles to expect.
The Chinese-built Qinghai-Tibet railway spans 1,956km across high altitudes linking Xining in Qinghai Province to Lhasa.
"The Chinese have built a railway to Tibet, and once you've done that, very few things are going to be a technical challenge."
"If you have the right environments, there is no reason these schemes shouldn't happen," he adds.
While the old colonial lines vary in size and style, the new Chinese railways will be standardized, which makes it easier to link lines and countries, Grantham explains.
"Essentially, the Chinese will give you a catalogue. You pick one and build it."
Is China building everything in Africa?
It's not just railways. The Chinese are involved in constructing buildings, dams, and bridges within the continent.
– The 50-kilometer, eight-lane Thika superhighway was built by Chinese state-owned construction firm Wu Yi in 2012, and supported with Chinese funding.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Bridging cultures – Trade and partnership deals between African countries and China have been steadily increasing in recent years. This summer saw the completion of Morocco's Mohammed VI Bridge, a $72m project built by Chinese development group Cover-Mbec.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Whatever the weather – Chinese investment is the leading source of infrastructure spending in Africa. Nigeria accounts for the most umbrella imports, with trade worth $39 million in 2014.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Access all areas – Trade has become increasingly diverse, as typified by recent deals to export elephants from Zimbabwe to China. President Robert Mugabe's government sold 24 elephants to Chinese zoos in 2015, and despite protests from animal welfare groups, the figure will climb again this year.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Cost of smoking – In addition to elephants, Zimbabwe also exports vast quantities of raw tobacco to China. Sales reached a new peak of $575 million in 2014. In return, China supplies Zimbabwe with telephone equipment worth over $50 million, and a range of construction equipment.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Ben-in disguise – Benin is the leading importer of wigs in Africa, spending $411 million in 2014 on Chinese-made fake hair. The tiny state was also by far the continent's largest buyer of cotton from China, worth $852 million.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Exotic taste – Morocco supported one of the country's most popular habits with tea imports from China worth $211 million in 2014, the most of any African state.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Right track – Ethiopia supplied its booming construction industry by importing railway track materials worth $60 million in 2014, the highest spend in Africa.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Wealth kick – South Africa was the leading importer of bicycles in 2014, with trade valued at $23 million. Libya followed close behind with $11 million worth of Chinese bikes.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Going overboard – Liberia imported ships worth a continent-high $833 million in 2014, in most cases through the famous port of Monrovia.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Total coverage – China's scarves have found their largest African market in Egypt, which imported supplies worth $45 million in 2014. The nations also have a healthy exchange of carpets, with multi-million dollar supplies traveling in both directions.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Holiday homes – A recent report from the Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University in Cape Town documented increased Chinese investment in real estate in South Africa and Mauritius, worth around $740 million in the island state since 2005.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Curtain call – China has also invested heavily in cultural projects across Africa. Theaters have been a priority area, including Senegal's new 1800-seat Grand National in Dakar (pictured), largely funded through Chinese aid.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Stadium diplomacy – 'Stadium diplomacy' has been another feature of Chinese investment, with new arenas in Cameroon, Ghana, and Angola's November 11 stadium in Luanda (pictured).
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Medical aid – Dozens of African hospitals have been built with Chinese funds in recent years. President Xi Jinping inaugurated this hospital and a new university library in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, in 2013.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Strength in unity – The headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was built with $200 million of Chinese state funds.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Transport upgrades – China's largest commitments in Africa are to infrastructure projects, such as Nigeria's $8.3 billion Lagos-Kano rail line, largely funded through Chinese loans.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Turning the tide – Ghana has been able to mitigate electricity shortages through the Bui Dam on its Western border, which incorporates a 400-megawatt hydropower plant. The $600 million project was constructed by the Sino Hydro company, supported by Chinese state loans.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Fueling development – China has supplied credit worth over $2 billion to an oil refinery project in Angola, although this has been hit with delays.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Road less traveled – The 50-kilometer, eight-lane Thika superhighway was built by Chinese state-owned construction firm Wu Yi in 2012, and supported with Chinese funding.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Bridging cultures – Trade and partnership deals between African countries and China have been steadily increasing in recent years. This summer saw the completion of Morocco's Mohammed VI Bridge, a $72m project built by Chinese development group Cover-Mbec.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Whatever the weather – Chinese investment is the leading source of infrastructure spending in Africa. Nigeria accounts for the most umbrella imports, with trade worth $39 million in 2014.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Access all areas – Trade has become increasingly diverse, as typified by recent deals to export elephants from Zimbabwe to China. President Robert Mugabe's government sold 24 elephants to Chinese zoos in 2015, and despite protests from animal welfare groups, the figure will climb again this year.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Cost of smoking – In addition to elephants, Zimbabwe also exports vast quantities of raw tobacco to China. Sales reached a new peak of $575 million in 2014. In return, China supplies Zimbabwe with telephone equipment worth over $50 million, and a range of construction equipment.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Ben-in disguise – Benin is the leading importer of wigs in Africa, spending $411 million in 2014 on Chinese-made fake hair. The tiny state was also by far the continent's largest buyer of cotton from China, worth $852 million.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Exotic taste – Morocco supported one of the country's most popular habits with tea imports from China worth $211 million in 2014, the most of any African state.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Right track – Ethiopia supplied its booming construction industry by importing railway track materials worth $60 million in 2014, the highest spend in Africa.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Wealth kick – South Africa was the leading importer of bicycles in 2014, with trade valued at $23 million. Libya followed close behind with $11 million worth of Chinese bikes.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Going overboard – Liberia imported ships worth a continent-high $833 million in 2014, in most cases through the famous port of Monrovia.
Photos: Trillion dollar deals: The China-Africa partnership in pictures
Total coverage – China's scarves have found their largest African market in Egypt, which imported supplies worth $45 million in 2014. The nations also have a healthy exchange of carpets, with multi-million dollar supplies traveling in both directions. |
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