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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil, where is it headed ????
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From: HookH1/23/2017 5:01:33 PM
   of 2
 
Hi there Barnard, I shall be reviving your post in the attempt to stimulate.

So currently the market appears leaning to the Bullish.

Institutional investment has weighed heavily bullish, but my question is... the three main factors remaining prevalent are-

Trump's unswayed opinion of tariffs on imports- in this case imported oil and will he follow through?

Whether OPEC sticks to it's agreement (this user thinks that the short term this could prove reliable) & finally the increase in US drilling.

Of the 1.8 million Bpd, 1.5 have already been cut. And whilst I know we won't fully see the effects for another few months- I fail to understand how with a few months to go and only another 300,000 bpd OPEC & Russia could hope to see another $10-$15 USD pb in it.
I'm of the opinion that as the Saudi energy ministers have already noted not continuing past the 6 month deadline and with expectations of seeing the US & NON-OPEC nations capitalising and pushing up production that the upside to oil is realistically nearer to the $55-$60, and then on the low side of that.

What are opinions and if we consider a forecast high within 10% or so would anybody considering shorting oil exposure?

I see the upside as realistically a 10% gain- on that OPEC remain true to their word, US oil figures remain stable and or dip, and no external pressures dampen the bull trend.
Whereas on the bearish if any of these factors were to prove to overcome the cuts then realistically wouldn't a bearish oil outlook prove alot more profitable with last years lows, setting a benchmark- in excess of -50%?
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