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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend
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To: George T. March who wrote (550)1/5/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: Richard Barron  Read Replies (3) of 2561
 
George,
I only can forecast for 3-6 months in general and only 1 month now, since I think the bonds are going crazy assuming there is no chance of an interest rate hike in the next 6 months, while the employment #'s are very strong and show Greenspan will have to act by March. Until I know which of these 2 scenarios is likely, I'm scared to do more than trade. REIT's should do better than the market on a pullback and I would expect REIT's to top 2-7 months after the utilities put in a top. The $UTY just put in a long term double top dating back to October 1993. If it doesn't break through to new highs inside the next 2-3 months, this could be a significant turning point. Long term, REIT's should do at least as well at the stock market in general. Starting now with real estate bottoming in many areas only 1-2 years ago, and the stock market quadrupling in the last 10 years, I'd overweight real estate for the next 5-10 years, or until conditions change.

I think the hospitality stocks are good buys when they hit the lows. Notice MT is buying La Quinta today, which may help put in a short term trading bottom on the sector,

Happy new year.
Richard
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