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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Wizhi who wrote (58969)	1/25/2017 10:14:35 PM
From: Shane M	1 Recommendation of 78752

Hi Wizhi, I've seen persuasive arguments that margin debt might should be viewed as an effect of rising markets, rather than a cause of rising markets. Here's one link from Barry Ritholtz in April 2015, but I think I've seen several argue this about it's use as a predictor. bloomberg.com quote: "One day, this bull market will end. Whether it will be triggered by the Federal Reserve raising rates, accelerating inflation, valuation concerns or some geopolitical event is unknown today. But there will be an end, perhaps even a crash. History suggests that NYSE margin debt will be at all-time highs when that happens. But I strongly doubt its absolute level will give you much of a warning." all fwiw

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