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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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John Pitera
mary-ally-smith
To: John Pitera who wrote (18639)1/27/2017 11:19:58 AM
From: The Ox2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
This latest move in the SPY/SP500, since the lows of last Feb., looks very similar to the move out of the 2009 low. I think we've had an amazing amount of negative sentiment reflected in this index for the past 2 or 3 years and there's a clear indication that this negativity has finally been removed (or tempered) after the election. Brexit was more a technical trading blip, from the way the markets have digested it. Also, the caution before the election was very understandable.

Based on these 2 charts, there's nothing to worry about, IMO. A correction here or down the road a bit is very likely due to the length and size of this move but I doubt we'll get more than a blip down to the lower end of the rising channel (the more strongly sloped upward of the 2 channels). Even that looks like a far fall at the moment and it may be that after earnings are digested in a few weeks, some of the current momentum wanes for a short stretch.

Lastly, there's been nothing in the trading of VXX or VIX to indicate a change in the trend is imminent. Daily RSI on VXX is saying keep a close eye but until there's a change in the trend, no reason to anticipate one (IMO). Wait until the data says: take notice!

(PS...the long term annotated chart was posted by wolfgangrene a long time ago and has served us well since it appeared a few years back!!)


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