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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners

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To: Loren who wrote (7535)	1/5/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: David R. Evans	Read Replies (3) of 12039

Hello Loren, I use 80/80 stocks because I want to be trading stocks that will move and 80/80 is the best way I know of to ensure me of it. Below I have the results of a system test for StochRSI (14) I ran against Warner Lambert (WLA) using 6 years of data. Total net profit 58.9375 Open position value -13.5000 Percent gain/loss N/A Annual percent gain/loss N/A Initial investment N/A Interest earned N/A Current position Long Date position entered 11/19/97 Buy/Hold profit 86.0625 Days in test 2193 Buy/Hold pct gain/loss N/A Annual B/H pct gain/loss N/A Total closed trades 22 Commissions paid 0.0000 Avg profit per trade 3.2926 Avg Win/Avg Loss ratio 3.76 Total long trades 22 Total short trades 0 Winning long trades 15 Winning short trades 0 Total winning trades 15 Total losing trades 7 Amount of winning trades 82.6875 Amount of losing trades -10.2500 Average win 5.5125 Average loss -1.4643 Largest win 36.0000 Largest loss -3.2500 Average length of win 30.67 Average length of loss 41.57 Longest winning trade 70 Longest losing trade 75 Most consecutive wins 8 Most consecutive losses 3 Total bars out 783 Average length out 34.04 Longest out period 97 System close drawdown -5.1875 Profit/Loss index 85.19 System open drawdown -8.0000 Reward/Risk index 88.05 Max open trade drawdown -27.7500 Buy/Hold index -47.20 Now look at the results of a system test of Dahl once again using 6 years of data: Total net profit 52.1250 Open position value N/A Percent gain/loss N/A Annual percent gain/loss N/A Initial investment N/A Interest earned N/A Current position Out Date position entered 12/8/97 Buy/Hold profit 86.0625 Days in test 2193 Buy/Hold pct gain/loss N/A Annual B/H pct gain/loss N/A Total closed trades 13 Commissions paid 0.0000 Avg profit per trade 4.0096 Avg Win/Avg Loss ratio 2.75 Total long trades 13 Total short trades 0 Winning long trades 6 Winning short trades 0 Total winning trades 6 Total losing trades 7 Amount of winning trades 90.5000 Amount of losing trades -38.3750 Average win 15.0833 Average loss -5.4821 Largest win 76.1875 Largest loss -28.7500 Average length of win 108.83 Average length of loss 42.00 Longest winning trade 286 Longest losing trade 58 Most consecutive wins 4 Most consecutive losses 3 Total bars out 598 Average length out 42.71 Longest out period 145 System close drawdown -8.9375 Profit/Loss index 57.60 System open drawdown -9.6250 Reward/Risk index 84.41 Max open trade drawdown -31.2500 Buy/Hold index -39.43 Now please remember that the system test in MSWIN can not anticipate what you would do with your money while you were out of the trades. After six years of trading you would windup with about the same amount of profit but with Dahl you would have many less trades. Is that good? In most cases YES but if you have an itchy trigger finger it might not be because you may be selling too early and not waiting for your Dahl sell signal. Also remember that the StochRSI (14) system test is using straight StochRSI (14) with no other indicators or systems involved. Are these good results or not is up to the person looking at them. Dave Evans

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