I am so glad TigerPaw, Max, and EKS brought up and continued this topic. It is one I have wanted to introduce for awhile, but I didn't know if there would be interest. This is going to be ALL over the place.
1. I believe the market, at a minimum for actively traded stocks, is very close to or perfectly efficient, meaning securities are, on average, correctly priced.
2. Despite that belief, I have never been an indexer. Why? Because by picking and choosing, I can better tailor my portfolio to my needs at any given time. I have significantly outperformed market averages over my investing career. I say this not as a pat on the back kind of thing, but just as information. Why did I outperform? I was lucky. I'd be glad to discuss this if anyone thinks I am BS-ing.
3. I am not the least bit convinced that "experts" or publications are any better than we are and may actually be worse. Of the two SI threads I follow closely--here and Apple, I believe the "investment advice" of participants has been better than those who get paid to give or publish such advice. One example for me is the old Kraft, which I had never considered until I saw it here about 4 years ago. Despite so many bearish opinions over that time, anyone who has held it for four years has to be very happy.
4. I used to subscribe to Value Line. I just felt I was not getting my money's worth. If find it very comforting to read its rankings each week, but, if a stock I wanted to buy was ranked 2 (good), I would buy it and be happy. If it were ranked 4 (not very good), I would buy it and think I was getting my 10- or 20-year investment at a bargain price. I let my subscription lapse. I miss it a bit, but I can read it online via my public library. I miss it, but do not believe it helped my investment decisions.
5. Ditto with M* on investment decisions. Very comforting to read, but not helpful in my investment decisions. I was comforted by its "fair value" numbers, but did not trust them to give me any meaningful insight. What I miss the most from not having M* is its powerful stock screener. If I ever resubscribe, that will be the reason.
6. I read seeking alpha-sometime, but analyses range from pretty decent to horrific, and I have no way of really judging. Information overload.
7. I liked SSDs when I could get the growth and safety scores for free. Again, I don't know how meaningful they are, but it makes me " feels good" when 90% of my safety scores exceed 85.
8. I look at all my sources, including Fido's comprehensive Equity Summary Score, upon which I probably put the most weight, but then just go with my intuition or gut.
Finally, I totally sympathize with TigerPaw. I would like my portfolio to be automatic, but there are just too many spin-offs, mergers, or (occasionally) significant sectoral events that need some thoughtful addressing. Like TP, I guess I will be doing that myself for awhile, although I want to hear about others' choices, too.
Well, it's 60 in southern Oregon and getting later, so I am off for a hike. I hope there are more posts on these topics when I return. Thanks for reading this far.
Kip |
