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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16144)	1/5/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Ike: You were clear. If you read some earlier posts you'll see AG mentioned the Fed will be watching for deflation as well as inflation (haven't read the posts but did read the article). I believe I mentioned earlier we should see a rate drop by the fed this year before we see an increase (hey maybe this call will play out <gg>). Looks like others may be picking up on a potential rate drop. Economy is slowing (but still in good shape), $$ is strengthening, and rates are high on a historical basis (appx 4 points over inflation). Inflation is lower than the Fed target and yes Oil is a key driver of inflation. The refinancing that we'll see from the lower rates (people were too busy for last 6 weeks with holidays to focus on this) and new homebuying will more than offset the slowdown in exports (although you have to pick the winners and losers). One heck of a flat yield curve. The only kicker really keeping a lid on a great rally is earnings. Earnings can still be lower (for U.S. companies as they have higher labor and benefit costs and they see a slow down in exports) than predicted and take the market down further. BWDIK. Tim

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