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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 445.60

-10.1%

Jan 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (129994)	2/7/2017 10:30:46 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) of 219934

spend spend spend and run down the reserve clip & paste from PDF report in in-tray MONETARY POLICY The PBOC is in a tightening mode worried by the fall of excess funds within the banking system and by the rise in the loans to deposit ratios. Whilst total social financing rose sharply (16.3%) in last year’s fourth quarter versus 2015, it actually fell by 15% in December compared with a year ago. In our view, the PBOC is just pushing its shoulder against the wind, wanting to rein in excessive speculation without hurting the economy. We also think that the economy will be robust enough by mid-year to encourage the PBOC to raise rates. This would have the added effect of being RMB supportive. Moreover, there are rumblings that government is gently encouraging Chinese holders of liquid assets overseas to return them to China. Just as government has tightened up on companies and residents wanting to move funds offshore, we believe both measures are tactical rather than strategic in form. Given the new uncertainties emerging from the election of Donald Trump, China is embarking on defensive measures, or Plan B. In summary, China’s recovery is accelerating. Government having analysed where the huge inter-corporate debt lies has begun to restructure industry and in so doing tackle the corporate debt issues. The big story in our view is that China takes the long view. It is investing in its future unlike so many advanced countries. It is why a strategic decision was taken in 2014 to rundown its holdings of US Treasuries.

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