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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (19363)1/5/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: dwight vickers  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
(Off topic)

I am absolutely mesmerized watching the activity.

Been a believer for a long time that governments and central banks can delay the day of reckoning, but cannot cancel it.

The battling over who will have the cheapest currency so that they may export their way to prosperity (solvency?), will be fascinating.

I'm sure the Chinese, Indonesians, Indians, and the rest will sit idly by.

I was looking at some numbers over the weekend and came to the conclusion that our markets have enough liquidity that they are unlikely to start the real bad times right away. A 20-25% bear market is possible anytime, but it would likely be brief.

We are just too awash in $ for more than that at this time.

An exterior shock could change that. Let's say a break of 14,000 in Japan and a rush to repatriate, gold exploding upward, further collapse of Asian currencies (the China card?).

But eventually they won't be able to keep fingers in all the holes in the dike.

You don't create wealth with the policies being followed by these authorities in charge, you destroy wealth ultimately.

My God, Greenspan is worried about deflation. Was that just to crush gold again, or to push the long bond under 5.78?

It is interesting times we live in.

Dwight
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