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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 399.29

+0.9%

Dec 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (130706)	2/20/2017 7:29:25 AM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) of 218548

You are already 60-75% above prior peak in prices from data I see already. My view is that it isn't "60-75% above prior peak in prices" especially with an inflation correction. Pulling back some, the Case Shiller NSA 20 city is in the 190s last I looked and peaked around 206 in 2006, having bottomed around 134 in March 2012. That's up about 44% and still down about 7% from the peak before inflation. What happens down the road after finally some stronger growth and upward trajectory in mortgage originations? It sure isn't going to be a "happily ever after" repeat, but we'll sure hear that and similar from those that have a lot to gain. Just another cycle repeat with a different flavor of "irrational exuberance" and perhaps "housing never stays down" while ignoring both BLS and actual inflation (my CPPI has been running close to Case Shiller yearly gains for years, even going below zero in 2009). It'll work for a while as another (dangerous) stopgap, but the piper always gets paid in some way, aka Karma. The payments keep getting larger & larger since roughly 1971 when the Fed became the US money god with help from liars like Bernays & Co, Wall St and DC, and with much "help" from hugely growing US political divisiveness, aka fomented hate. How long the Fed and other CBs can keep sentiment under "optimism control" considering the real economy and real social conditions (aka, gray swans) is my only real question

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